Look okay, so the thing with the NSW state election is that it was never going to go Labor, as I said a couple days before the election:
just gonna put it out there in a tweet so when my prediction comes tru this weekend i can be all smug but i reckon the coalition will win — Dr Been (@10rdBen) March 25, 2015
i reckon it’ll tighten the fuck up, but i don’t think people dislike Baird enough to want to give Foley a shot — Dr Been (@10rdBen) March 25, 2015
i cant blame em tho, i think Foley’s a creep n NSW labor needs to field better candidates ANYWAY thats my 2c thanks for reading the ol twet — Dr Been (@10rdBen) March 25, 2015
My reasoning here is that the memory of being burned by the farcical parade of labor premiers for the past decade is still too fresh (we had three premiers in the space of 5 years, which is enough to disrupt any legislative agenda), and NSW Labor still hasn’t done anything to significantly separate itself from that era. There has been no break, no repudiation of what went wrong, no communication of having ‘learned their lesson’ (whether that really is the case or not, I’m talking purely about the realm of perception).
Add to that situation the fact that the ICAC affairs and resignations were only last year and you can understand why, actually no, maybe NSW voters aren’t being completely fucking stupid and maybe it’s fairly sensible to think that Labor maybe shouldn’t be in government again just yet. People don’t seem to love Baird – there’s no widespread sense of identification with the son of a former politician and career banker, try as he might to SMS his way into the minds of everyone in the state – but they sure as hell still dislike NSW state Labor. And that dislike seems mostly entirely reasonable to me. In my electorate even a ten percent (!!) swing away from Stuart Ayres to the Labor candidate Emma Hussar wasn’t enough, because of the cataclysmic landslide Ayers benefited from after Karyn Paluzzano resigned in disgrace back in 2010 (Paluzzano presented me with awards at my High School graduation in 2004 – mum & dad have the photo on the fridge), with Ayers at the time picking up a twenty-seven percent swing (!!!!) signalling the beginning of the end for Kristina Keneally’s government – the point at which the cat was finally out of the bag that Labor was about to get fucking whacked later that year.
Heck, even Jackie Kelly picked up 10% of the vote in Penrith which goes to show the hunger there is in the electorate for third parties and alternative (and lol no the greens don’t really count out here). Also the west has almost completely lost it’s distaste for the idea of a second airport in Sydney, which is why Kelly couldn’t really muster up a solid protest vote.
Anyway, Baird looks set to begin preparing to sell off the NSW power grid which is exactly the wrong lesson to take away from his electoral victory and for which I am absolutely sure he will be massively punished at the next election. Electorates as disengaged as the state of NSW (particularly out here in the west) electorates aren’t willing to vote anyone out to pre-empt bad shit like the power sell-off, they’re only ever going to do it reactively, not proactively. Especially when doing so means going back to what seems like a political abuser who hasn’t really convinced you they’ve learned their lesson yet.